Double Dip Recession?

Double Dip Recession Risk Is Near: CIO
Published: Wednesday, 24 Feb 2010 | 8:07 AM ET Text Size By: Robin Knight
CNBC Assistant Web Producer

The global economy looks set to plunge back into recession as the sovereign debt pressure currently rocking Europe intensifies, Ashok Shah, CIO of London & Capital, told CNBC Wednesday.



"There's a risk of a double dip recession round the corner," Shah said. "Given the sovereign debt crisis that is going around the Mediterranean countries, this is going to put a lot of pressure on Europe."

The economic outlook for Europe is deteriorating very rapidly and that is adding to the factors dragging on the economic recovery, Shah told CNBC.

Concerns over the strength of Europe's power-house economy, Germany, deepened Wednesday after its gross domestic product growth was shown to have stagnated in the fourth quarter. German private consumption fell in the quarter, official data showed, suggesting the country's economic recovery may not be assured.

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Shah also pointed out that other major European economies such as Italy have still not escaped the recession.

If the economy does slip back into recession, governments won't be able to tackle the problem with more stimulus measures because they are already doing everything they can in that direction, Shah said.

"Everything that the authorities can do is on the table right now. The key question is can they keep it going rather than increasing it because the room to increase is very limited," he said.


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It's too early for debt-laden governments to start cutting their public deficits because the recovery is so fragile, he told CNBC as Greece was gripped by protests against planned cuts to its public spending.

Meanwhile the cost for countries tapping fresh capital is rising, which could be a sign that the stock market is about to stall, he said.

"The credit default swaps on the sovereigns have been rising quite rapidly. This is telling you that the cost of capital is rising and when the cost of capital is rising in essence equity markets really can't make any progress," he said.

"After the huge rallies of last year I think it's time for the markets to consolidate," he added.

Investors need to see firm plans from governments to reduce their budget deficits, Shah said.

Tim Harris, CEO of Harris Capital, told CNBC that further weakness in the economic outlook could spark a flurry of selling in the stock market.

"People are the conservative side of neutral right now and it's going to take a macro sign, a crack in growth more so than inflation, which is going to get people to run for the hills," Harris said.

© 2010 CNBC.com
Topics:Central Banks | Interest Rates | Greece | Credit | Recession | Politics & Government

Getting Off the Grid by Gwen Caldwell

Getting off the grid and other solutions

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Our country is bankrupt, untold thousands have lost their homes, food and gas prices continue to rise and the good news is?
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by Gwen Caldwell
(libertarian)

My energy feels depleted every time I read the news. I am more thankful than ever that I used the television for target practice...I'd probably be suicidal if I had to actually watch the news!

We live in times unlike this country has ever seen. Hope is dwindling in many areas of the country of ever recovering from the inevitable financial and credit collapse. It's not even a matter of if it will happen, in my humble opinion. It's a matter of when. I struggle to get my arms around what that will really mean to us in our day to day lives. Certainly, it will not afford us the current freedoms we enjoy. I see tell tale signs of martial law knocking on our doors. Chaos at best.

Like many other people I am very concerned, because I have a young child at home. I already struggle to keep food on the table and a roof over head. I know with certainty that it's going to get worse before it gets better. How do we adress cost reduction without compromising standard of living? How do we insure a food source? How do we cut safe on energy, heating and cooling bills.

Sustainable communities have sucessfully been transforming lives for decades. They create community, a food source and good health with organic gardening, small animal husbandry, cost effective, alternative, off the grid, alternative energy living environments. It's about making a committment to participate in your living enviroment. To merge into a total living system for sustainability.

There is just that kind of community currently forming on Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. It will serve as a model community and education center that can be duplicated anywhere, with very little money, a bit of hard work, committment to live a life that is not plugged into corporate America to maintain your standard of living.

People call and ask me about debt, the car they're still making payments on, etc. Get out from underneath your debt! Drive an older model car to reduce cost, insurance, etc. Cut up your credit cards. Consolidate them if possible on a zero percent interest rate. Move into a smaller house to reduce cost. Install a wood or pellet stove. Sell your excess. Use it to stock pile esstential food and living items, especially canned and dried meats, staples, dried fruits, nuts, pastas, beans, etc. I don't really recommend stockpiling canned foods, because they have no nutritional value, with the exception of canned tomatoes and beans. Guns, ammo, water and filters. Convert to solar or wind...make your own it's much cheaper. Make sure you have fishing and hunting supplies. If you're in the country get a few chickens, rabbits and goats. Buy heritage or non-hybrid seeds to grow your own food. Food will be your greatest asset! If you have a guns...get ammo..a lot of it, while you still can. If you don't have a gun., get one and a lot of ammo, while you still can. A bow and arrows, and traps will be useful. Learn to dry and can meat in the event that the grids are shut down, so it doesn't spoil.Canning supplies will be helpful.

Make a mental note of the day to day items you and your family currently use. Do an inventory of what you have for storage and canning supplies. What you don't have and will need buy first, then fill in the other non-essential and creature comforts. I would definitely advise you get a lot of hydrogen perioxide, apple cider and regular vinegar, lemon juice, honey, cayenne pepper, olive oil and cinnamon. All of these can be used medicinally for just about anything that ails you and then some!Aslo non-perfumed bleach to purify water. Vitamin, medicines, herbals and a good first aid kit.

Sh*t is going to hit the fan! Get ready! Your beautiful furniture and decor will not feed you, house you, nor will it keep you warm for the winter. Get rid of it! Buy vegetables when they are on sale and dehydrate them. Buy in bulk. Start a food co-op with your neighbors and share in the cost of buying bulk. Buy a book to learn about local edible plants and medicinal herbs that grow in your area. Learn them and use them for better health and to reduce food costs.

For more information visit www.freewebs.com/voiceofwomensustainabiltyproject

Few of us can easily surrender our belief that society must somehow make sense. The thought that the state has lost its mind and is punishing so many innocent people is intolerable. And so the evidence has to be internally denied.

~ Arthur Miller

Logging Off Black Cherry

My buddy Vince is culling about 40 Black Cherry trees for us this week. The market is not optimal by any means but if Kevin II is going put up a yurt in the spring we needed to clear some out anyway.

Easy Rider (1969)

As long as I'm posting about favorite movies, here's one of my all time favorites.

Libertarian biker types in New Mexico...hmmmmm. I'm picking up on a trend here.

Easy Rider 1969

Wyatt and Billy are two motorcycle riders (bikers) on their way to Mardis Gras, and encounter hitchhikers, a drunken lawyer, a jail cell, a whorehouse and the death of a friend. Written by Aaron Horne

Two young "hippie" bikers, Wyatt and Billy sell some dope in Southern California, stash their money away in their gas-tank and set off for a trip across America, on their own personal odyssey looking for a way to lead their lives. On the journey they encounter bigotry and hatred from small-town communities who despise and fear their non-conformism. However Wyatt and Billy also discover people attempting 'alternative lifestyles' who are resisting this narrow-mindedness, there is always a question mark over the future survival of these drop-out groups. The gentle hippie community who thank God for 'a place to stand' are living their own unreal dream. The rancher they encounter and his Mexican wife are hard-pushed to make ends meet. Even LSD turns sour when the trip is a bad one. Death comes to seem the only freedom. When they arrive at a diner in a small town, they are insulted by the local rednecks as weirdo degenerates. They are arrested on some minor pretext by the local sheriff and thrown in jail where they meet George Hanson, a liberal alcoholic lawyer. He gets them out and decides to join them on their trip to New Orleans in time for Mardi Gras.

Written by alfiehitchie

Off The Map

OK, so I'm not a film critic and this is a little out of the norm for this site, but............. A movie about a family living off the grid? They just don't make'em like this.

Set in the stunning landscape of rural New Mexico near Taos, this movie is worth a look just for the visuals. Art, sustainable living and great acting make this movie a real gem for folks with these interests.

Movie Overview - Holedigger Studios

It's 1974 and the harshly beautiful wilds of Taos are home to 11-year-old Bo Groden (Valentina de Angelis) and her free-thinking family. While constantly yearning for escape from her sparse environment, Bo passes the time with flair and imagination. She's a crack shot with a rifle and a bow and arrow, an artful plunderer of wallets and briefcases, and the compelling mistress of ceremonies for a moonlit three-ring circus of her own invention. Bo's home is an entrancing, challenging place that she will one day transcend to become the woman she was destined to be. Arlene (Joan Allen), Bo's warm, earthy, and eccentric mother, raises most of the family's food in her vegetable garden -- which she prefers to tend in the nude. Meanwhile, Bo's father, Charley (Sam Elliott), the embodiment of Old West masculinity, is losing the battle with his inner demons. When William Gibbs (Jim True-Frost) arrives, a hapless IRS agent with demons of his own, he soon proves to be a catalyst in the lives of the family during this watershed summer. Embraced by the Grodens' idyllic, peculiar world, Gibbs eventually abandons an investigation into the Groden's tax history and realizes he has fallen in love with both the place and its people. In a surge of creative energy, Gibbs dips a brush in paint and pours his feelings out on canvas, discovering a long hidden talent for artistic expression. The Grodens, too, make their own discoveries over the course of this memorable season -- the mysteries of love and loss, the power of family unity, and the eternal truth that in New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment, anything is possible.

Lloyd's Prayer

I received this in an e-mail. I'm not sure who penned it


In honor of Lloyd Blankfein, Chairman at Government Sachs:

Our Chairman
Who Art At Goldman
Be They Name

The Rally's Come, God's Work Be Done
We Have No Fear Of Correction.

Give Us This Day Our Daily Gain
And Bankrupt Our Nearest Competitors,
Leaving No One Left Standing Against Us.
And Bring Us Not Under Indictment.

For Thine Is The Treasury
And The House And The Senate
Forever and Ever,
Goldman.